The future of captured CO2 : Analysis of the role of carbon capture, storage and utilisation in a sustainable Europe

Abstract: The energy transition is one of the largest challenges our global society is facing. In 2015, the United Nations acknowledged the Paris Agreement, where the world’s nations were united to limit the global warming well below 2 °C in comparison with pre-historic levels. One of the measures to tackle this challenge that have been proposed by both the International Energy Agency and the European Union is carbon capture and storage or utilisation (CCUS). The concept of CCUS is relatively old but has in light of climate mitigation measures been identified as vital since carbon dioxide (CO2) either can be permanently stored or sequestered into products and materials. Previous research has shown a large potential in CCUS, and that it has a key role in enabling and achieving net-zero climate scenarios. However, large-scale and widely distributed CCUS facilities has not yet been deployed, and it is not fully clear which aspects that are the most important affecting the deployment and how this can be facilitated. This study aims to investigate the current and future market of captured CO2 in Europe during the next decade. The study aims to fill the knowledge gap on how policies affect the development of CCUS, the drivers and barriers that current actors have identified within the field, and lastly, possible pathways in which CO2 can be used. This study was performed using a literature scoping review and interviews with relevant CCUS actors in different parts of the value-chain. The results show CCUS is recognised as an important tool within the European Union to reach the climate goals set out by the European Commission. The development and further deployment of CCUS are however prevented due to economic and legislative barriers, of which low carbon pricing, such as the EU ETS, is identified as the main barrier against making CCUS commercially competitive. Additional legislative barriers are connected to the cross-national trade and export of CO2, as well as a lacking framework on verification and monitoring of captured CO2 and the trade with carbon removal credits. The results also show that CCUS initially will be developed at industrial clusters in the North-West Europe, where shared infrastructure is recognised as an enabler due to sharing risks of investments. The main focus within Europe is on offshore storage rather than CCU due to its large sequestering potential, although CCU can be relevant in regions lacking infrastructure for the transportation of CO2. Regarding the investigated utilisation options, synthetic fuels, building materials, and polymers have been identified to have high potential even if they are not believed to have a high influence as a climate mitigation measure in comparison with CCS. It is concluded that viable business models and cost-effective infrastructure solutions are essential for the European CCUS industry. Much of the deployment is however dependent on clear, beneficial frameworks and policies stating the rules and facilitating the economics of CCUS. Nevertheless, it is expected that especially the European CCS sector will grow in Europe in the upcoming decade, although the role of CCU should not be neglected.