Do Correlations Between Macroeconomic Variables and Equity Return Change during Volatile Times? : A statistical Analysis with Focus on the Oil Crisis 2014

Abstract: Every investor place his or her investment with the desire of maximum return with lowest possible risk. To accomplish this desire a good knowledge of how macro variables affect the equity return is important. During the last two decades we have had several crises turning these basics up-side-down. This thesis aims to examine how macroeconomic variables have affected the equity return during stable times and further analyse what impact the recent oil crisis have had on these correlations. This research is limited to only a few selected counties in Europe, namely Germany, Sweden, France, Norway and United Kingdom. We have analysed this phenomenon using multiple linear regressions with a lagged dependent variable on data from February 2010 to August 2014. The data was gathered from 55 consecutive months before the oil crises and also during the six succeeding months of volatility. The obtained models from tranquil times were then used to predict stock development during times of turmoil. The estimated index values in each country were then compared to the actual outcome. From these comparisons it was possible to determine if the models were accurate even in times of crisis. Our results confirms many of the known correlations between macro variables and equity prices during stable times, but also produces more unforeseen findings. The results we came across further implies that the models are not suited for predicting the performances in times of uncertainty. This conclusion was drawn by investigating the probabilities of occurrence for the estimated returns, using the obtained models. Germany and Sweden appeared to yield particularly high returns during the time of turmoil while the Norwegian stock market instead decreased in value.