Future Sustainable Energy Solutions for Sulaymaniyah : Minor Field Study
Abstract: The study aims to identify the reasons behind power shortages in the city Sulaymaniyah, located in northern Iraq or Iraqi Kurdistan, and to clarify how large the difference between power demand and supply is. Also, several interviews have been performed to give further insight to the issues and possibilities the region is facing. Nevertheless, a portion of the energy demand is met by local diesel generators supplying power in city districts. With the use of the software program ArcGIS, a mapping of all the diesel generators in the city districts is done in order to visualize the unsustainable conditions of the city. In addition, the energy output of the diesel generators is quantified, and the energy supplied to a household is estimated on an average. Later, calculations are performed to estimate the diesel generators price for electricity, their amount of annual CO 2 emissions and social costs. In order to bring light to renewable energy solutions, a solar PV configuration was chosen based on regulations and infrastructure issues in the region, suitable for households. Furthermore, with the use of intra-hour solar irradiance data from Meteonorm and the software Matlab, an optimal solar PV angle was calculated for Sulaymaniyah. Thereafter, the goal was to substitute diesel generated energy with solar PV energy and thus a solar PV system was estimated for a typical household based on; the average energy received from diesel generators, the solar PV system’s efficiency and the total solar irradiance striking the tilted panels. Furthermore, a Net Present Value was calculated to evaluate the economic profitability of the solar PV investment. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis was done with different scenarios to predict different outcomes of the NPV model. The study found that the energy system in Iraqi Kurdistan is unreliable and unsustainable, mostly due to infrastructure issues and political uncertainties. Due to these issues, power shortages occur on a daily basis and the difference between power supply and demand reached an average of 350 MW throughout 2018, and the largest difference reached 1304 MW. The number of diesel generators in the city was 525 and had a combined installed capacity of 176.6 MW, however they are usually working at 85 % operational efficiency resulting in a power supply of 150.1 MW. Additionally, it was estimated that a household receives an average of 920.07 W from the diesel generators. Furthermore, the calculated price for electricity was 207 IQD/kWh and all the generators combined pollutes approximately 319000 tons of CO 2 per year. The optimal angle for a solar panel in Sulaymaniyah was calculated to 21° and the recommended configuration for a solar PV system for households was a stand-alone battery storage system. In order for households to replace the diesel generators they need a capacity of 1.62 kW and a dimensioning of 9.66 m 2 . Finally, based on the NPV model it was found that it is economically profitable to invest in a solar PV system with today’s conditions. However, the investment is profitable with a relatively small margin and based on a scenario analysis, it showed that the investment might easily become unprofitable with the change of the discount rate. Lastly, it can be discussed that the actual demand in Sulaymaniyah is lower than the one presented, since it is artificial and very dependent on peoples consuming behaviors which might be different if they were to have access to electricity all the time. Also, one of the biggest obstacles that might hinder solar PVs to be integrated to the energy system is the net-metering, regulations and tariff issues. The KRG clearly does not give incentives to its people to invest in renewable energy, which also might be the reason why there is a very small market in Sulaymaniyah.
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