ASSAULT CRIME RATES FOLLOWING THE OUTBREAK OF COVID-19 IN SWEDEN

Abstract: The Covid-19 disease has a large impact on life across the globe, and this could potentially include impacts on crime. Using SARIMA-models, the current study describes how crime has changed in Sweden during a twelve-week period after the first governmental measures was undertaken to limit the spread of the disease. Compared to most other countries, Sweden has undertaken smaller interventions and is therefore an interesting case from a comparative perspective. The findings show that most measure points are within a confidence interval of what is expected from the forecast, indicating that common assaults have not been heavily affected during the study period, contrary to what is expected from a routine activity perspective.