Pathways for the Cuban energy transition and its CLEWs interactions

Abstract: Transitioning from an energy system based on fossil fuels to an energy system based on renewables is necessary to limit global warming and comes with both opportunities and challenges. National policies in Cuba look toward the domestic sugar industry for synergies in this transition, and bagasse is projected to play a key role in the future electricity system. Since bagasse only is available during the sugarcane harvesting season, it must be supplemented with other feedstock for power production year-round. Biomass can have important interactions with CLEWs and therefore a nexus approach is important to ensure policy coherence across sectors. This study investigates different pathways for the Cuban energy transition from a CLEWs perspective through a scenario analysis and uses OSeMOSYS as a tool. This study shows that national policies for increased food security, regrowth of the sugar industry, use of energy crops and increased electricity consumption to develop the country compete for land and water resources. While there are currently plenty of resources, compromises will be needed in the medium- to long-term in order to stay within natural boundaries. This is especially true for the water sector since precipitation is expected to decrease in the future due to climate change and since sea level rise will contaminate groundwater. Another effect of climate change is soil degradation which would decrease yields. Increased energy and water inputs to the agricultural sector is known to increase yields in developing countries such as Cuba, which is why an adaptation strategy to maintain yields could be to increase these inputs. However, this would further amplify the pressure on water resources. Exceeding the exploitable internal renewable freshwater resources would then require water inputs from desalination plants which is an energy intensive process, which - if powered by an electricity system with a high share of biopower - could create a vicious cycle.