Developing a Least Cost Electrification Plan for Kakamega County in Kenya - A Bottom up Approach to the geospatial electrification analysis with OnSSET

Abstract: This thesis discusses the role of “Productive Uses of Electricity” (PUE) in the development of sustainable electrification pathways. The definition of PUE involves in broader terms agricultural, industrial, commercial and social activities, which involve electricity services as a direct input to the production of goods or provision of services towards a sustainable and progressive future of the planet. The two main aspects of productive uses – in relation to electrification – discussed in this thesis consider a) productive vs. consumptive and community uses and b) income-generation and enhanced productivity. This very specific project focuses on Kenya. The Vision A national long-term development blueprint to create a globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life by 2030, that aims to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure environment. The vision is anchored on three key pillars; economic, social and political governance. Predicting and forecasting the future of energy systems is perplexing. Thus, systematic energy planning at national and subnational/county level is required through the adoption of more realistic assumptions towards demand and other factors of prospective projects which includes making it a clean green energy system. This thesis provides a detailed analysis of the energy sector for Kakamega County in Western Kenya. The current energy demand profile was chosen for the county over a number of few selected productive sectors. Renewable energy resources, grid network, electricity demand and other potential aspects of the analysis were assessed using GIS (Geographic Information Systems). A bottom up LEAP model developed previously for the county was also used to identify and project the energy demand based on the vision and also provides post vision analysis to support the county towards the future. Finally, an electrification model was developed using OnSSET and deployed to identify the least cost electrification strategy in Kakamega, focusing in particular on the role of productive uses in developing sustainable pathways forward.