ADR premium, its construction around crisis : To what extent is the ADR premium built by the same variables during a crisis as during a non-crisis period?

Abstract: In this thesis, we analyze premium relationship of American depositary receipts (ADR) and their underlying shares. Several researchers have previously identified the main variables influencing the construction of ADR premium of cross-listed companies. The aim of this study is to investigate to what extent the main variables affect differently the construction of ADR premium in crisis period. For the purpose of the study, two periods are defined. The period from June 2006 to October 2007 represents the non-crisis period whereas the period from October 2007 to March 2009 represents the crisis period. Our cross-listing sample consists of companies that have level II and level III ADR listed on the NYSE and the NASDAQ over the two periods. The tested variables influencing the premium are the liquidity, the currency exchange rate, the home and US market and the volatility. The liquidity is measured according to two ratios, the Amihud ratio and the turnover ratio. The currency exchange rate is the current exchange rate denominated in US dollar. The home markets are the reference indexes of the home country to which the underlying share of the ADR belong. The S&P 500 Index is used as a proxy for the US market. Finally, the US market volatility is analyzed with the CBOE VIX volatility Index. Multiple and simple OLS regressions are used to analyze the impacts of variables on ADR premium. The T-statistic is chosen to test the explanatory power of variables. The regressions are divided in three main parts. The first one is dedicated to the liquidity variables, then the second one to the home and US market, currency exchange rate and CBOE VIX volatility Index. Finally the last part keeps only the variables with the stronger explanatory power in order to define two equations of the factor influencing mostly the premium. We have found that crisis strongly modifies the relationship between ADR premium and the main variables. In crisis period, the regressions show that liquidity becomes a factor with a greater explanatory power of ADR premium. However the other main variables experience the opposite effect with a much lower T-test in times of crisis. It seems that the currency exchange rate, the home and US market as well as the volatility lose their explanatory power in times of crisis to the benefit of liquidity variables.