Leading indicators: myth or legend?
Abstract: In this thesis we analyze the predictive power of various traditionally leading indicators of GDP-growth. We apply a dynamic panel data estimation approach and use variables categorized in to two groups; survey indicators and economic variables. The sample is transformed using a wavelet analysis to obtain the short-, medium- and long run impact of the variables. The results show that there are difficulties in estimating the short run fluctuations while there is large explanatory power in the medium run.
AT THIS PAGE YOU CAN DOWNLOAD THE WHOLE ESSAY. (follow the link to the next page)