Fostering Anticipatory Action via Social Protection Systems : A Case Study of the Climate Vulnerability of Flood-Exposed Social Security Allowance Beneficiaries in Bardiya District, Nepal

Abstract: Rationale – Climate disasters represent a significant and growing proportion of the humanitarian burden and are a key factor in increasing poverty and insecurity. A myriad of studies demonstrate that aid delivered in an ex-ante fashion can be effective in mitigating losses of life, assets and livelihoods associated with climate hazards. This inquiry supplements the nascent body of research and empirical evidence base pertaining to the building of anticipatory capacity into large-scale national systems, namely via linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to an existing social protection system. Research question – Using the case of flood disasters in Bardiya district, Nepal, the research inquired the following: How can social protection be combined with Forecast-based Financing in order to optimise anticipatory humanitarian relief for climate-related disasters? Sub-questions – Research sub-questions guided the inquiry: (1) To what extent are current social protection beneficiaries exposed to climate-related disasters? (2) What is the specific climate vulnerability of social protection beneficiaries? (3) What are the anticipatory relief needs of climate vulnerable social protection beneficiaries? Methodology – Grounded in empirical research via the conduct of a qualitative single case study, the inquiry adopted a conceptual perspective and an exploratory design. A remote data collection strategy was applied, which included (1) a thorough desk review of key scientific literature and secondary data provided by in-field humanitarian organisations; and (2) semi-structured interviews with key informants. Key findings – The data demonstrated that the exposure of social protection beneficiaries to flood hazards is comparable to the general population. Nevertheless, an elevated climate vulnerability is evident secondary to an increased sensitivity and diminished adaptive capacity. The flood anticipatory relief needs/preferences identified include cash-based assistance, food provisions, evacuation assistance and/or enhanced Early Warning Systems. Conclusion – The research supports the utilisation of the proposed conceptual model for an integrated social protection and Forecast-based Financing mechanism, inclusive of vertical and horizontal expansion, in order to effectively identify the most climate vulnerable groups and to guide the provision of targeted anticipatory actions. The mechanism is optimised when a people-centred approach is utilised, with reference to the idiosyncratic, lifecycle and corresponding intersectional vulnerabilities of the targeted population. These findings will contribute to prospective programming in Nepal; additionally, the extent to which they can be generalised will be informed by future applied efficacy studies and comparative analyses with research from differing contexts.