Predictability of Shareholder Return in Medical Device Companies : Investment Decisions from thePerspective of an Investment Firm

Abstract: The medical device industry has seen rapid growth in recent years, and the increasing valuations has caught the attention of investors. Although their growth has outpaced many indices, medical device companies’ reliance on capital to finance research, patents, and clinical testing to reach pre-market approval makes due-diligence and the investment research process especially complex. Investors frequently rely on intuition when making investment decisions and it would therefore be particularly valuable if there was a way to accurately predict future returns. Although stock return prediction and market anomalies are a frequently debated topic among finance researchers, unlike other studies which look at whole markets this study looks at a particular subset of companies. This study looks at 63 recently listed medical device companies in the US market to analyze the predictability of future shareholder returns. The metrics analyzed are some of the most common quantitative metrics used by investors. A multiple linear regression model is used to determine if the metrics can predict future total returns, and abnormal returns. An interview was conducted with an industry investment expert to get more insight in the sector and to evaluate the chosen metrics. This study also examines the same data set during two eras; predictability before and after the financial crisis in 2009, to see if predictability is constant over time. The findings show that free cash flow yield is the only statistically significant variable in the model. This implies that if a recently listed medical device company has a negative free cash flow yield for one year, it will have a positive return the following year. From the analysis on the two eras, before and after 2009, predictability is found to be lower after the financial crisis.