The social and political implications of insurgent control in Colombia: A micro assessment at the municipality level

Abstract: The following dissertation examines the relationship between the actual control of insurgent groups, FARC and AUC, in municipalities of Colombia and the subsequent performance of public services. By resorting to a novel semi-parametric, group-based-trajectory model, this paper manages to discern the de facto presence of such groups at the municipality level, which allows carrying out such examination. It is found that the relationship between public services and the degree of authority of any of the parties in Colombia follows a U-shape, which mirrors the concave shape relationship between violence and the degree of control of any of the parties. Further, violence also seems to have an impact on the provision of public services through the fact that municipalities under insurgent rule are more able to invest more in per capita terms in public services than municipalities that are under dispute. Moreover, in line of what the previous literature states, it is found that municipalities that are more violent tend to receive a higher share of the transfer from the State. Thus, transfers from the State it is not an alternative channel through which insurgent full control is associated with a better provision of public services. Finally, this dissertation assesses the electoral impact at the local level of such dynamics of control, violence and provision of public services and reveals that the presence of insurgent groups is associated with stronger support in the elections, even after accounting for selective violence. Our results suggest that a new mixed theory of greed and grievance is in place to understand the activity of insurgent groups in the late 20th century and early 21st century.