Can IPO first day returns be predicted? A multiple linear regression analysis

Abstract: During the last three years the Swedish stock market has showed a strong upwards movement from the lows of 2016. At the same time the IPO activity has been large and a lot of the offerings have had a positive return during the first day of trading in the market. The goal of this study is to analyze if there is any particular IPO specific data that has a correlation with the first day return and if it can be used to predict the first day return for future IPO’s. If any regressors were shown to have correlation with the first day return, the goal is also to find a subset of regressors with even higher predictability. Then to classify which regressors show the highest correlation with a large positive return. The method which has been used is a multiple linear regression with IPO-data from the period 2017-2018. The results from the study imply that none of the chosen regressors show any significant correlation with the first day return. It is a complicated process which might be difficult to simplify and quantify into a regression model, but further studies are needed to draw a conclusion if there are any other qualitative factors which correlate with the first day return.