Capital flows during times of crises : A study of 21st century economic crises and their impact on FDI-flows
Abstract: Foreign direct investment has been sharply affected by the global SARS-CoV-19 pandemic, as quarantine measures have decimated global trade, aviation and domestic economies through lockdowns which have wreaked havoc on markets. Macroeconomic indicators including GDP growth rates, unemployment, business confidence, consumer confidence, retail sales and inflation have all been negatively affected due to the simultaneous supply & demand shock caused by the pandemic. Economic crises are a regularly occurring feature, with a degree of cyclicality determining their emergence. The uniqueness of crises, in their appearance and dissipation, stems from a large variance in relevant macroeconomic, fundamental and societal factors giving rise to the crisis in the first place, with the uniqueness being bound and pertinent to a selected period of time in history under which they occurred. In this thesis we explored the impact of the two most significant economic crises of the 21st century, the Great Recession and the ongoing SARS-CoV-19 pandemic and their impact on capital flows, specifically on FDI-flows in two developed markets and two emerging markets. Our findings suggest that FDI-flows display a high synchronicity with stages of economic cycles, and tend to decrease during economic recessions and increase during economic expansions.
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