Analysis of Burkina Faso Electricity System

Abstract: Burkina Faso like many other Least Developed Countries (LDC) in their quest for sustainable development has realized that for there to be meaningful economic and social progress, prioritizing resilience to impacts of climate change is critical. In its National Adaptation Plan, a decrease in average rainfall is forecasted in the order of 150 mm by 2025, in comparison to an average annual value of 798mm for the period 1991 to 2016, and an increase in average temperatures between 1° C - 2.5°C. Though a weak emitter, Burkina Faso ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2005 and through its Intended National Determined Contributions it is committed to unconditionally reduce 6.6% of its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 in keeping with the Paris Agreement.  The electricity sector is identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The demand is expected to exponentially grow due to increased cooling degree days and on the supply side, both renewable (hydropower and solar photovoltaic) and fossil fuel-based thermal power, will experience reduced production.  This study adopts a bottom-up approach scenario-based analysis using the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool to conduct a comprehensive analysis of Burkina Faso electricity system for the period 2014-2030 on the current and future consumption, generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in light of the potential impacts of climate change. A literature review on the renewable energy resource potential and the effect of climate change on future generation electricity infrastructure was conducted. Modelling simulations based on national, regional and global policies were conducted using the LEAP model developed by considering four scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, Ideal Case Scenario (ICS), ECOWAS - WAPP Scenario (EWS) and Climate Smart Scenario (CSS).  The annual electricity consumption is expected to grow to 4.6TWh by 2030 against 1.13TWh in the base year 2014 under a BAU scenario, with CSS and ICS having 43% and 93% increased demand compared to the BAU. Electricity generated from renewable energy sources was highest in CSS and 36.2% and lowest in BAU scenario at 28% for the whole period up to 2030. Universal electricity access is achieved under CSS through off-grid solar contributing to 8.3% of the total electricity system generation, while in EWS is achieved through extensive national grid connections. Electricity generation from decentralised systems under CSS is 300% higher when compared to the other three scenarios for the modelling period. Expected savings of about 10.5% in petroleum products importations can be achieved under the EWS scenario assumptions, compared to ICS. This is due to the incorporation of jatropha biodiesel blend of 20% for thermal generation. GHG emissions are projected to reduce by approximately 19% under CSS and increase by more than 65% in both EWS and ICS compared to BAU scenario in 2030.  From the analysis, the CSS emerged as a better alternative to a BAU future and also in respect to the other scenarios as it is shaped by the perspective of potential impact of climate change on the vulnerable electricity system. The CCS incorporated the highest share of decentralized electricity generation through renewable solar photovoltaic, least electricity imports compared to BAU, and allows for the highest reduction of GHG emissions.