Analysis of the history of landscape changes over a period of 200 years. How can we predict past landscape pattern scenario and the impact on habitat diversity?

Abstract: Popular Science The decline of plant species biodiversity is closely linked with changes in rural landscape both in time and space. During the last 200 years rural landscape has undergone dramatic changes. Before 1900 rural landscape was mainly composed of grassland and wooded area with grazing cattle. Arable lands at this time were a small part of the landscape and were located around villages. After 1900 most of the grasslands were transformed into arable land or forest. Unfortunately our knowledge of the rural landscape around 1800 is not very good because of the lack of spatial information. However there is in Sweden a good coverage of historical maps but they only covered small area around villages. In rural landscape there are three key habitats: semi-natural grassland, wetlands and deciduous forest. The aim of study was to create a model predicting the landscape as it was in 1800. We used land use historical maps from 1800 as well as land use maps from 1900, soil map and elevation map. In order to create the model we tested the relationship between soil, the slope of the terrain, the distance to settlement and the distance to water and the three habitats. This has been done the Geographical Information System software ArcGIS and the statistical open source software R. The results showed that between 1800 and 1900 a high diversity of habitats became lost especially for semi-natural grasslands. The small amount of data and the high diversity of habitats make it difficult for the construction of the model. However the accuracy for the 1800 was good and the accuracy for the accuracy for the 1900 model was very good. The model for 1900 can be used in a larger extent than the study area. With such a model it is possible to have a better understanding of rural landscape dynamics in time and space. Conservationist could use this model for pinpointing areas of interest for conservation or restoration.