Effectiveness of the Altman Z-Score model : Does the Altman Z-Score model accurately capture the effects of Non-Performing Assets (NPA) in the Indian banking sector?

Abstract: The aim of this study is to measure the effectiveness of Altman’s Z-Score model using Non-performing assets (NPA) as a benchmark stability indicator. To do that, this paper examines if Altman’s Z Score Models capture the decline in financial health of the banks caused by the NPAs, using a two-fold analysis i.e., in advance through prediction and when the distress period is ongoing. The findings of this paper would suggest that: 1. During the distress period: The Z-Scores only marginally capture the distress caused by the NPAs, which is in line the findings of Almamy et al that the predictive ability of the model goes down during the crisis period. 2. For the future: The results of the statistical t-tests indicate that, the Z-Scores do not have the predictive ability to capture the future NPAs. Two different models that are developed by Altman - one for non-manufacturing firms and the other for the emerging markets, are used to test, if one model is more suitable than the other to the Indian banking sector. The findings of this paper suggest that, due to the uniqueness of the Indian banking sector during the NPA crisis, the ‘Emerging market model’, does not produce any significantly better results. Therefore, there is further scope to develop a tailor-made model suitable to the Indian banking sector.