Link flow destination distribution estimation based on observed travel times for traffic prediction during incidents

Abstract: In a lot of big cities, the traffic network is overloaded, with congestion and unnecessary emissions as consequence. Therefore, different traffic control methods are useful, especially in case of an incident. One key problem for traffic control is traffic prediction and the aim of this thesis is to develop, calibrate and evaluate a route flow model using only observed travel times and travel demand as input. The route flow model was used to calculate the metric link flow destination distribution, that presents to which destinations the travelers on a link are going in percentage.