CHILDREN OF THE SPRING : A cohort analysis on the lasting value effects of the Arab spring

Abstract: Research on the Arab spring has indicated that the failure of democratic consolidation in post-Arab spring countries was, in part, due to economic insecurity. A conclusion that seems to be in line with the general literature on threat and its connection to authoritarian value-shifts. Yet, scholars in the fields of collective action and political socialisation have also demonstrated how events like the Arab spring can be incredibly influential in shaping political values, primarily among younger populations. Raising the question of whether formative experience with the Arab spring could have resulted in a more democratically inclined youth-cohort that would be more resilient to the authoritarian effects of economic insecurity. To answer this question, this master's thesis conducted a cohort analysis on five countries found in at least four waves of the Arab Barometer and tested four hypotheses generated by the previous question. The thesis did not see any evidence indicating that this Arab spring youth-cohort would be any more democratic than other cohorts. Furthermore, the cohort was also not more likely than other cohorts, to stave off the authoritarian effects of economic insecurity. Contrary to previous research, this thesis did not see a correlation between economic insecurity and authoritarianism in all countries studied. Potentially, indicating how contextual the connection actually is, and demonstrating the need for future studies on the topic to be conducted in already authoritarian contexts.