How to manage the uncertain? An exploratory case study of the challenges associated with defining success criteria for innovation projects

Abstract: Ageing populations are globally putting pressure on policy-makers to invest in innovations that can improve and streamline healthcare practices. As these investments use scarce public resources policy- makers need to be able to justify the investments to various stakeholders in society. However, innovation as a phenomenon is characterized by several aspects, a high degree of uncertainty, a dependence on learning from failure and an unpredictable time frame, that imply it is not applicable or appropriate to evaluate using traditional project management methodologies. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to research to what extent traditional project management methodologies apply for assessing success in innovation projects. This is done through an exploratory case study on a healthcare innovation project within the scope of a public private partnership between the Karolinska University Hospital and Philips Healthcare. From previous project management literature we derive a theoretical framework with three dimensions of 'Project management', 'Project objectives' and 'Organizational benefit' that we analyze with an alternative perspective derived from innovation literature. A qualitative methodology is applied, consisting of an extensive pre-study and a main study of 16 interviews with project stakeholders with various interests and involvement in the project. We conclude limited support for assessing innovation projects in the dimensions of 'Project management' and 'Organizational benefits'. Instead, our analysis suggests healthcare innovation projects should be evaluated on the objectives the anticipated innovation is expected to lead to. The reasons for this can to a large extent be explained by the nature of innovation being uncertain, dependent on learning from failure, and associated with an unpredictable time frame. However, additional explanations, for instance that assessing success criteria is connected with a cost and effort that needs to be taken into account, are also presented and analyzed in this thesis.