Probabilistic study of number of doors open simultaneously to fire-isolated stairs in basement carparks

Abstract: This thesis investigates occupant evacuation in basement carparks. The thesis aims to develop a calculation model to determine the probability of different number of doors to fire-isolated stairs being open simultaneously during an evacuation scenario. Research is done on previous studies of occupant evacuation, including the pre-evacuation and evacuation phase, which is the base for a conceptual model. A probabilistic method is employed and the conceptual model is incorporated into a spreadsheet which by use of different distributions and formulas simulates the probabilities of stair-doors being open simultaneously. A case study shows the use of the spreadsheet and the results. The results and limitations of the model are analyzed in a sensitivity analysis and comparison to an existing model.