Partisan Macroeconomic Preferences and the Diversionary Use of Force in The United Kingdom 1971-2000

University essay from Lunds universitet/Statsvetenskapliga institutionen

Abstract: This thesis explores the diversionary use of force in the context of The United Kingdom. Building on theory that suggests that diversionary tactics are most likely when domestic turmoil affects the core constituents of the incumbent party, I operationalize domestic turmoil as macroeconomic conditions that disfavor the core constituents of the incumbent party and test its effects on the initiation, or threat of, force towards other countries through logistic regression models and time-series data from The United Kingdom, 1971-2000. I find strong support for the hypothesis that high inflation during times of Conservative government increases the likelihood of initiation of force but fail to establish a causal relationship between high unemployment during times of Labour government and the initiation of force.

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