Time series analysis of repo rates and mortgagecaps eect on house price index

Abstract: Price trends on the Swedish housing market has risen sharply in recent decades and is at the moment up to the highest price level ever. The sharp price movements have opened up for discussion about a possible housing bubble. To prevent this the Riksbank can change the repo rate, which in turn aects the lenders' lending rates. Finansinspektionen introduced in autumn 2010, a mortgage cap which means that the house will be mortgaged to a maximum of 85 percent of its market value. The purpose of this was to cool the housing market and prevent the unsustainable development of household debt. The purpose of this study is to examine in particular the repo rates and the mortgage caps eect on house prices in Sweden. Although other variables that aect supply and demand in the housing market from a macroeconomic perspective will be included in the model, such as GDP, unemployment and the nancial crisis of 2008. This study has been done by using a quantitative analysis, consisting of time series analysis. The results conrm all the investigated variables expected impact on house prices. As for the repo rate and the mortgage cap the results showed that these have a negative eect on house prices in Sweden.