Using supervised learning algorithms to model the behavior of Road Weather Information System sensors

Abstract: Trafikverket, the agency in charge of state road maintenance in Sweden, have a number of so-called Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS). The main purpose of the stations is to provide winter road maintenance workers with information to decide when roads need to be plowed and/or salted. Each RWIS have a number of sensors which make road weather-related measurements every 30 minutes. One of the sensors is dug into the road which can cause traffic disturbances and be costly for Trafikverket. Other RWIS sensors fail occasionally. This project aims at modelling a set of RWIS sensors using supervised machine learning algorithms. The sensors that are of interest to model are: Optic Eye, Track Ice Road Sensor (TIRS) and DST111. Optic Eye measures precipitation type and precipitation amount. Both TIRS and DST111 measure road surface temperature. The difference between TIRS and DST111 is that the former is dug into the road, and DST111 measures road surface temperature from a distance via infrared laser. Any supervised learning algorithm trained to model a given measurement made by a sensor, may only train on measurements made by the other sensors as input features. Measurements made by TIRS may not be used as input in modelling other sensors, since it is desired to see if TIRS can be removed. The following input features may also be used for training: road friction, road surface condition and timestamp. Scikit-learn was used as machine learning software in this project. An experimental approach was chosen to achieve the project results: A pre-determined set of supervised algorithms were compared using different amount of top relevant input features and different hyperparameter settings. Prior to achieving the results, a data preparation process was conducted. Observations with suspected or definitive errors were removed in this process. During the data preparation process, the timestamp feature was transformed into two new features: month and hour. The results in this project show that precipitation type was best modelled using Classification And Regression Tree (CART) on Scikit-learn default settings, achieving a performance score of Macro-F1test = 0.46 and accuracy = 0.84 using road surface condition, road friction, DST111 road surface temperature, hour and month as input features. Precipitation amount was best modelled using k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN); with k = 64 and road friction used as the only input feature, a performance score of MSEtest = 0.31 was attained. TIRS road surface temperature was best modelled with Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) using 64 hidden nodes and DST111 road surface temperature, road surface condition, road friction, month, hour and precipitation type as input features, with which a performance score of MSEtest = 0.88 was achieved. DST111 road surface temperature was best modelled using Random forest on Scikit-learn default settings with road surface condition, road friction, month, precipitation type and hour as input features, achieving a performance score of MSEtest = 10.16.