Exploring Constraints to Russia’s Foreign Policy in the Baltics and the South Caucasus

Abstract: The thesis is an explorative study of the notion of constraints to Russia’s foreign policy. The explorative attempt investigates Moscow’s external behaviour vis a vis the states of the Baltics and the South Caucasus from 2013 to 2020. The analysis argues that the notion of constraints, under the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, can offer a certain degree of explanatory power in terms of foreign policy variance. The operationalization of the notion, based on Foreign Policy Analysis Theory, proposes specific factors for inspection. Initially, a thematic analysis of Russia’s Foreign Policy Documents of 2013 and 2016, illustrates that the notion of constraints and regionalism is lacking from the perception of the actor. The two documents understand the external world more in terms of threat/risk instead of constraints. Consequently, an examination of the constraints on the level of the international system, and the regional actors demonstrates that the notion holds analytical value under certain circumstances, however, it overlaps with existing frameworks such as that of Tsygankov’s constructivist version, and Structural Realism. The explorative research brings forward fields where the literature on Russia’s foreign policy can be enriched. One of the suggestions is associated with inspecting the notion of fear conditioning in the policy documents of the country.