Modeling contingency infiltration scenarios in MODFLOW : Stockholm Bypass and tunnel induced groundwater drawdown

Abstract: Subsurface constructions, such as tunnels, create hydrogeological challenges in mitigating risk of subsidence due to groundwater drawdown. Presenting readily made precautionary mitigation plans, such as strategically planned artificial recharge applications, can help effectivise the mitigation process. The Bypass Stockholm project comprises of several subsurface constructions which may lower the surrounding groundwater level through tunnel leakage. Risk of land subsidence persists in the nearby urban area of Vinsta, Stockholm, where a groundwater drawdown may cause the clays in the area to experience land subsidence. A hydrogeological modelling approach was used in the area to create strategic artificial infiltration plans that could be employed as a mitigative response to the drop in groundwater head. In order to simulate the potential tunnel drainage, a steady state hydrogeological model was built using MODFLOW. A 220 l/s tunnel leakage was then simulated. Four different artificial groundwater infiltration scenarios were then conceptualized and simulated to observe effects on groundwater heads. The groundwater levels of the baseline model of the area fit the calibration targets with average absolute deviation of 0.18 m. The tunnel drainage scenario lowered the groundwater level in the till aquifer and bedrock by 0 - 1.5 m and 0.5 - 5 m respectively, with higher drawdowns observed closer to the tunnel. The infiltration scenarios mitigate the groundwater drawdown with different efficacies; proximity to the recharge point, and discharge into the till aquifer were observed to have the highest effect on groundwater recharge in the model. The model could have been improved by improving the data quality surrounding the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock, as it had the highest effect according to the parameter sensitivity analysis.