Thinking outside the CAP : reducing domestic cattle farming as strategy for resilient food systems, in the context of Sweden’s defence policy

Abstract: In the context of the newly created Defence Policy, Sweden is trying to improve overall national preparedness for times of crisis. Preserving productive arable land by reducing resource-intensive agriculture is expected to improve self-sufficiency levels in the country and thus secure the supply chain in the event of war. This research aims to identify management options for domestic livestock production that increases resilience in the Swedish food system. Potential limitations and opportunities by Pillar I programs of the Common Agricul-tural Policy (CAP) are identified, for assessing compatibility of EU and na-tional objectives for future production systems. Lessons learned from past crisis management throughout the 20th century have been used for selecting existing scenarios of Swedish livestock management that can contribute to national preparedness. Three defined strategies for domestic cattle farming are based on these scenarios and ensure adaptability in agriculture. Feasibility of the results under the current conditions of the CAP has been assessed, by looking at cross-interactions between national and EU level. The analysis indicates that adaptive capacity is required for crisis situa-tions and could be ensured by the derived strategies for the livestock sector. Ecological Leftovers provide localized and circular agricultural systems for higher diversity in the sector. PLANT involves innovations for less resource-intensive production options which can generate new knowledge. Economic Sustainability increases redundancy of arable land through pasture management and thus ensures flexibility in domestic resource management. A combined implementation of the strategies is proposed for higher levels of resilience in the national food system and can further facilitate sustainable transformation of Sweden’s agriculture. Objectives of the current CAP would sup-port the stated suggestions, but inefficiencies of low targeted payments limit related opportunities. Changing conditions for basic direct payments are therefore suggested for future policy reforms that could improve effective-ness of CAP supports and prevent further capitalization into land.