DID ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEMOCRATIZATION IN LATIN AMERICA IN THE 1980s? Modernization theory revisited

Abstract: Democratic transitions have been associated with a high level of economic development and good economic performance according to modernization theory. However, until now no consensus has been reached about the specific form of the relationship. Thus, this study attempts to examine whether these suggested linkages hold evidence for the case example of Latin America by testing a linear as well as a curvilinear relationship running from the level of economic development to gradual improvements of the level of democracy. Likewise, the prevalence of a relationship between economic growth and democratization has been explored. Using an own composed data set that includes 20 Latin American countries over the period 1975 to 2008, a logistic regression is used to test the hypotheses on democratization derived from modernization theory. Results cannot confirm the predicted relationship between the level of economic development and economic performance on democratizations in Latin America. Especially, economic growth appears as an important factor in this analysis that is decreasing the likelihood of gradual improvements of the level of democracy in the region.