Agricultural-induced deforestation emissions and drivers of agricultural land use change in Indonesia

Abstract: Tropical deforestation, primarily driven by the expansion of agricultural land use, is responsible for significant global CO2 emissions, threatening current climate goals. Indonesia experiences one of the highest deforestation rates, endangering its rich biodiversity and human health. Global demand for Indonesia's crops is a critical force behind its increasing deforestation. Recent bilateral trade data is analyzed to answer the overall research question of which nation is a primary consumer of Indonesia's crops driving deforestation emissions. Moreover, a Structural Decomposition Analysis is applied using multi-regional input-output tables to identify drivers of its agricultural land use changes. The results show that Indonesia is a net exporter of deforestation emissions. Leading importers of Indonesia's deforestation emissions are India, China and the United States, especially importing palm oil and rubber. Moreover, agricultural land use change was driven mainly by internal factors in Indonesia, like changes in final demand per capita and population growth of Indonesia. Final demand per capita accounts for the strongest driver of land use. 86 % of the increased land use results from Indonesia's final demand per capita changes, while 14 % comes from other countries (foreign trade), primarily China and India.