Estimation of Un-electrified Households & Electricity Demand for Planning Electrification of Un-electrified Areas :  Using South Africa as Case

Abstract: “We emphasize the need to address the challenge of access to sustainable modern energy services for all, in particular for the poor, who are unable to afford these services even when they are available.”  Section 126: The Future We Want (Out Come Document of Rio+20-United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development June 20-22, 2012). The lack of energy access has been identified as a hurdle in achieving the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals, leading towards the urge to set a goal for universal electrification till 2030. With around 600 million people in Africa without access to electricity, effective and efficient electrification programs and policy framework is required to achieve this goal sustainably. South Africa is an example in the continent for initiating intense electrification programs and policies like “Free Basic Electricity”, increasing its electrification rate from 30% in 1993 to 75% in 2010 and a claimed 82% in 2011. The case of South Africa has been analysed from the perspective of universal electrification in the coming years. The aim was to estimate the un-electrified households for each area of South Africa in order to provide the basis for electrification planning. The idea was to use available electrification statistics with GIS (Geographic Information System) maps for grid lines and identifying the suitability of on-grid or off-grid electrification options, which may help in planning the electrification of these areas in the near future. However, due to lack of readily available data, the present work has been able to estimate the un-electrified households & their possible electrical load. The estimates have been distributed in different income groups for each province and district municipality of South Africa, which can be used for electrification planning at national, provincial and municipal level.  As a result, some simple and useful data parameters have been identified and an estimation methodology has been developed, which may be employed to obtain similar estimates at lower administrative levels i.e. local municipalities and wards. The work can be utilized further and feasible electrification options may be suggested for different areas of South Africa, with the help of GIS maps and data. Depending on the availability of useful data, the data parameters & indicators used in this work will be helpful for planning the electrification for rural households in other places of Africa.