Thailand’s Positive Transformation amidst Failed Political Consolidation: The historical struggle for democracy and its impact on economic development since 1970

Abstract: By utilising a narrative analysis, this qualitative study takes a historical perspective on the impact of political unrest and political violence on Thailand’s economic development from 1970 to 2020. The study identifies the key state actors in Thailand’s political sphere as well as their relation to each other. Furthermore, the study classifies five ‘eras’ in the reviewed period and identifies distinct characteristics and development outcomes for each era based on the literature. Then, the study includes the results of a comparative analysis between the time periods and a variety of economic indicators to qualitatively review the impact of political instability. The study finds that Thailand was more sensitive to political unrest and violent incidents in the 1970s-1990s. However, with globalisation and the necessity to navigate the country out of several financial crises, Thailand re-structured its economy and consequently became less sensitive to internal conflicts that could halt economic activities from the 2000s onward. In addition, the study finds that as long as the traditional elite maintains political- and economic power, Thailand’s institutions will continue to be extractive and halt not only economic development but also improved living standards for Thais. The study concludes that political unrest and –violence is unlikely impacting Thailand’s economic development in the short run, but that political instability over the long term is unsustainable for Thailand’s future.