Simulating changes in Swedish wood supply from increased forest certification : An area-based matrix model approach using National Forest Inventory data and EFDM software

Abstract: The first law regarding the protection of Swedish forests was implemented in 1903 and the scope has only ever increased since then. By the 1990s a new method of forest protection was founded in the form of FSC and later also PEFC certification programs. These provide a market-based approach to forest protection by through the use of price premiums incentivize forest owners to participate in voluntary forest conservation. 63% of Swedish productive forests was certified in 2017 and this number has potential to increase which can have significant implications for future forest supply. In this study I use an area-based matrix model on NFI data within the EFDM software to simulate forest supply in the next 100 years in two management scenarios: Current practices and if all forest is managed according to the FSC and PEFC standard. The timber stock is simulated to grow faster when all forest is certified and reach a stable level that is 101 mill. m3sk greater than if forests are managed as today. Harvests are simulated to grow in a similar way but remain lower when all forests are certified than if managed according to current practices. The difference does however decrease slightly as the simulation progresses. The levels of harvest are simulated at substantially lower levels in both scenarios than actual levels due to insufficient information on management in NFI data, indicating a necessity for external information to compliment the NFI.