Modeling response of glacier discharge to future climate change, Gacier No.1, Ürümqi

Abstract: Glaciers are known to be prone to climate change. The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China, has approximately 20,000 glaciers, which accounts for half number of glaciers in China. One of important function of glacier is that it provides meltwater, therefore, the glacier response to a warming temperature in this area is becoming critical to be investigated in relation to water sustainable development. The Ürümqi Glacier No.1 (UG1), as one of the most important glaciers, has a dominant role of providing meltwater for the capital city, Ürümqi. In this thesis, the Distributed Enhanced Temperature Index Model (DETIM) was employed, and calibrated to perform UG1’s historical discharge pattern. Then the calibrated discharge model was grafted to future climate projection of four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in order to investigate UG1’s water supply potential in the future. Moreover, UG1’s water supply role was discussed under a dynamic interaction between water supply and human society in the end. The result showed that the computation meltwater volume is between 121 million m³ to 131 million m³ in 35 years, from 2016 to 2050.