The Battle of Steel - Impact of U.S. steel tariffs on Swedish steel exports : A synthetic control group approach
Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine whether the 2018 U.S. steel tariffs have negatively impacted Swedish steel exports to the U.S, given that the U.S. is Swedish steel industry’s second most important foreign market and the majority of Swedish steel exports to the U.S. are subject to the tariffs. The theoretical foundation for this study is the standard trade model, which predicts a decline in quantity traded due to tariffs. With monthly export value data for January 2015 to January 2020, the synthetic control method (SCM) is used to create a counterfactual to the steel products subject to tariffs. The study encountered several data limitations which complicated the use of the SCM, but the overall results suggest that in the absence of tariffs, Swedish monthly export value for steel to the U.S. would have higher than it has been with the tariffs.
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