Innovation Diffusion Dynamics and Behavior of Actors in Road Freight Transportation : A study of the market uptake dynamics and adoption of driverless trucks

Abstract: Technological innovations have long been a driving force of change in different industries. However, not all innovations gain widespread diffusion and adoption, regardless of it being an incremental or a radical innovation. Driverless trucks are expected to have a substantial disrupting effect on the road freight transportation sector. The commercial timeline is characterized by great uncertainty and signs are pointing towards many trucks becoming completely driverless in the coming years. As such, it is of interest to study how the market dynamics will be affected by the introduction of driverless trucks and the potential adoption rate among companies within this industry. The study was carried out using a mixed-method approach consisting of the Bass model to estimate the future adoption rate of driverless trucksand semi-structured interviews with industry actors as well as a survey distributed to haulage organizations to contextualize the model and interview results. The findings suggest that 20 percent of the organizations within road freight transportation in Sweden will have adopted driverless trucks 15 years after market introduction. In addition, the model suggests that 100 percent adoption will be reached after 40 years. However, achieving a fully driverless fleet will be difficult due to complex traffic environments and non-driving related tasks. The interview respondents acknowledge the significant impact driverless trucks are expected to have on the industry that has been operating with the same practices for many years. Furthermore, the haulage companies expressed a reluctance towards driverless trucks and a low willingness to pay, albeit being open to innovations in general. This may be due to changes in the current way of operating, the emergence of new business models challenging the status quo, and the limited financial strength among these organizations that may have a harming effect on the opportunity to adopt the innovation.