Phasing out Gas? Implications of the Narratives around Natural Gas for Germany’s Heat Transition in the Building Sector

Abstract: Germany must decarbonise the heating of its buildings, now majorly dependent on natural gas, to meet its climate neutrality pledge. However, the share of natural gas-based heating has not been decreasing in the last decades, and Germany continuously failed to meet the building sector’s emission reduction targets. Moreover, the longevity of the gas and building infrastructure make the sector prone to carbon lock-ins. Thus, the questions emerge why policies have not changed to meet the challenges of the heat transition and where the ongoing support for natural gas originates. It has been suggested that policy(ies) and socio-technical transitions are influenced by narratives and discourses, as they entail framings and goals that suggest and justify certain actions and strategies. This thesis identifies and analyses narratives and discourses used to portray the role of natural gas in Germany’s heat transition in the building sector. Further, this thesis seeks to reveal what implications these have on the heat transition, especially considering carbon lock-ins. To do so, data is collected from relevant documents and 16 semi-structured interviews with actors involved in the discussion around natural gas in the heating of buildings; and analysed using thematic analysis. A conceptual framework is employed, drawn from the literature on energy transitions, discourses, and lock-ins. The results identify two prominent discourses: a gas discourse defending the role of natural gas, and an electrification discourse advocating for a phase-out of natural gas and the expansion of electricity-based heating. It is shown that the gas discourse coalition’s strong agency has allowed them to portray gas as the central solution for Germany’s heat transition, creating a discursive lock-in that can potentially prevent the dissemination of renewable heating technologies. Yet, discursive changes might also provide windows of opportunity for change. Policymakers should aim to reduce uncertainty by developing a clear strategy for a gas phase-out.