A risk of conflict – Perception or Reality? : A media study of securitization and strategic narratives in the Suwałki Gap.

Abstract: This thesis studies news media published by Lithuanian, Polish and Russian news outlets on the Suwałki Gap and the Kaliningrad Oblast. It analyses whether and how these online news articles portray a risk for conflict in this geopolitical area for English-speaking audiences. The methodology uses qualitative content analysis and a theoretical framework based on the theory of strategic narratives and both the Copenhagen School approach and the sociological approach to securitization to code the content that has been published. The timeframe spans from 2021 to 2023, which corresponds to the Russian and Belarusian ‘Zapad exercises’ in the region. Analysis of the online news articles finds a series of narratives. Some confirm that Russia’s main goal is to either justify Russian (military) actions towards ‘the West’, or to spread chaos through malign information influence. Others, against the expectations of the literature, show that Polish and Lithuanian uses of securitization are significantly different, especially due to a different kind of portrayal of vulnerability in the securitization process. However, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine has also caused strengthened (military) cooperation between the two countries. This study contributes to developing a better understanding of securitizing narratives that national and state-owned media outlets use to portray risk, especially when Russia is involved.