Property Prices and Disaster (In)Justice: Fifty Years of Demographic Change in Hawai’i County’s Lava Hazard Zones

Abstract: While there is a degree of homogeneity in the physical impact that volcanic hazards can cause, the experience of volcanic risk and the politics of exposure are far from equal. The purpose of this thesis is to expand on research citing population growth and property price dynamics as factors encouraging settlement in the Mauna Loa and Kīlauea lava hazard zones. It seeks to determine if high-hazard areas have disproportionately elevated populations of socially vulnerable groups when compared to less hazardous regions. Using U.S. census data from 1970-2020 and adapted U.S. Geological Survey lava hazard zones, it analyzes how seven indicators of social vulnerability have changed in relation to lava hazard zones and fluctuations in median property prices. This study determined that there was a notable discrepancy between hazard zones for low-income and unemployment indicators, and median property values, with more hazardous areas consistently reporting higher percentages of socially vulnerable groups and lower prices. A Pearson correlation indicated negative correlation between all indicators and median property value 1990-2020, demonstrating that lower property prices not only trended with high hazard zones, but were also correlated with elevated levels of traditionally vulnerable groups. This prolonged disproportionate exposure of marginalized populations to inundation risk presents a concern of disaster injustice that has the potential to be exacerbated or alleviated by risk management initiatives including the Hawaiian Property Insurance Association and the Voluntary Housing Buyout Program. The themes presented in this volcanic study area can carry over to the climate justice field.