Prediction of Future Development of MCI patients Based on Cognitive Function

Abstract: Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) refers to a transitional stage between normal aging and dementia. The purpose of this study was to predict the development of MCI patients based on cognitive function. 222 MCI patients were studied at baseline and at a follow-up of 2 years. Using discriminant analysis, they were predicted into four diagnostic groups: Improved, Stable MCI, Dementia of the Alzheimer’s Type (AD) and Other Dementia. Using four tests - Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test recall, Auditory-Verbal Learning Test recall, TMTB time and Digit Symbol – overall 62.6% of cases were correctly classified after cross-validation. The rate of prediction in this study was 1.8 times better than chance, which is better than reported in most other studies. The model did best for the AD group with 80% of cases correctly classified. However, most cases in the Other Dementia group were also classified as AD.