Into tomorrow¹ : Constructing scenarios for the record industry in the 21-century

Abstract:

Titel: Into tomorrow – Constructing scenarios for the record industry in the 21-century.Number of Pages: 54 (55 including enclosures)Author: Erik G AgebergTutor: Else NygrenCourse: Media and Communication Studies DPeriod: Spring semester 2009University: Division of Media and Communication studies, Department ofinformation science, Uppsala University.Purpose/Aim: The aim of this paper is to, through scenario planning methodology,present recommendations in order for record companies to be competitive in the nearfuture. In order to achieve this goal three question where asked. (1) What are the mostcentral problems of the record industry? (2) How can these problems affect the futurein the industry? (3) In what way can record companies’ work to avoid theseproblems? The paper focuses on the Swedish market partly because of the giventimeframe but also because of Sweden’s position in that of file sharing as well astechnological advances. It is also assumed in this paper that the future of music saleswill be concentrated to the Internet.Material/Method: The chosen method for this paper was scenario planning. Anextensive literature study was complemented with interviews of key players involvedin content consumption over the Internet.Main results: A fundamental issue for the future of the music industry is that oflegislation. The outcome of the record industry’s future is almost exclusivelydependent on the way, which the legislation takes. A stricter legislation, whichincludes violations of citizens’ personal integrity, may backfire and result in politicalpirate parties’ becoming members of parliaments. This may in turn result in that theintellectual property laws of the nineteenth century are removed. Suing privatepersons and trackers can result in record companies alienating an entire generation ofmusic consumers. Record companies attempts to retain music as a product may proveto be futile within time, but they can absolutely prolong the period in which it is aproduct. It is nevertheless, not entirely negative for music to become a service. Bybeing a service music can more easily be attached to another service, like an Internetsubscription, or an experience.