Development of a forecasting model of Indian road traffic scenario to predict road user share, injuries and fatalities

Abstract: According to the global status report on road safety 2018 by the World Health Organization (WHO), road accidents cause 1.35 million deaths annually world-wide, making it the eight leading cause of death. Road fatalities are caused due to multiple factors including rash driving, unsafe roads and vehicle failures. Developed countries have been able to control the road fatalities with planned infrastructure, safer vehicles and public awareness. According to the WHO report, low income countries own about 1% of the total vehicles but account for 13% of the road fatalities. In this thesis the traffic scenario in India is studied. India is a developing country and has the largest fatalities from road accidents. According to "Road Accidents in India - 2018", the annual report by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Govt of India, Indian road accident deaths stood at 151,417which accounts for 11% of the total fatalities in the world due to road accidents. The present work aims to forecast the traffic scenario of India to predict the number of fatalities, accidents and the road user share for the years 2018 to 2050. The thesis aims to predict the number of fatalities and accidents on a macro level for the country of India based on various demographic and financial parameters. Empirical laws like Smeed’s law and Andreassen’s law, parametric regression methods, non-parametric regression methods and time-series analysis is conducted on the data and the results are analyzed. The thesis, with its predicted trends of road accidents, injuries, fatalities, and road user share aims to highlight the need for change in policy, vehicle design and increased public awareness. The predictions in this thesis would provide insights as to what road traffic scenario would be in terms of the road user share and the counts of road accidents and road accident fatalities, if no major intervention is done from the present scenario. The results of the thesis on a high-level indicate that the road fatalities would increase in the future. The thesis results also indicate a increased presence of two-wheelers in Indian road. These bring into focus the efforts needed to reduce the fatalities on road by different methods including improvements of safety in the vehicle fleet of the country. This work is done in partnership with Autoliv, a global automotive safety company with headquarters in Sweden, closely working with different stakeholders to support the Government of India to reduce the road accidents and related fatalities.