Designing Denmark’s future offshore wind policy framework : A pathway for policymakers to achieve 12.9 GW deployment by 2030

Abstract: Offshore wind power will play a crucial role in achieving the European Union's energy security and decarbonization targets. In mature markets, offshore wind has achieved commercial competitiveness and investors no longer request State-aid to develop projects. Thus, policymakers in Denmark are now challenged to redesign policy frameworks and tender schemes that were previously predicated on the demand and distribution of power price securities to developers. In this context, this research aims to develop a proposal for Denmark's future offshore wind policy framework that balances the priorities and perspectives of the government and developers. A systematic case study analysis was carried out to understand the key policy trends and market dynamics across the EU's mature offshore wind markets. Based on the case study results, a survey was created and circulated to offshore wind industry experts to conduct a multi-criteria analysis capturing the consolidated industry perspective on future policy design. The survey results are subsequently reflected in the proposed policy framework for Denmark that focuses on addressing future grid bottlenecks and system integration challenges. Developers demonstrated awillingness to absorb project risks, including early-stage site surveying, complete offshore transmission scope management, and merchant power market risk. Furthermore, they supported the incorporation of both price-based and qualitative evaluation criteria in the tender scheme. The proposed policy framework links the policy priorities of the Danish government to the knowledge and perspectives of experienced industry professionals, to provide implementable solutions that can inspire Denmark's pathway to achieve 12.9 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.