Predicting and classifying atrial fibrillation from ECG recordings using machine learning

Abstract: Atrial fibrillation is one of the most common types of heart arrhythmias, which can cause irregular, weak and fast atrial contractions up to 600 beats per minute. Atrial fibrillation has increased prevalence with age and is associated with increased risks of ischemia, as blood clots can form due to the weak contractions. During prolonged periods of atrial fibrillation, the atria can undergo a process called atrial remodelling. This causes electrophysiological and structural changes to the atria such as increased atrial size and changes to calcium ion densities. These changes themselves promotes the initiation and propagation of atrial fibrillation, which makes early detection crucial. Fortunately, atrial fibrillation can be detected on an electrocardiogram. Electrocardiograms measures the electrical activity of the heart during its cardiac cycle. This includes the initiation of the action potential, the depolarization of the atria and ventricles and their repolarization. On the electrocardiogram recording, these are seen as peaks and valleys, where each peak and valley can be traced back to one of these events. This means that during atrial fibrillation, the weak, irregular and fast atrial contractions can all be detected and measured. The aim of this project was to develop a machine learning model that could predict onset of atrial fibrillation, and that could classify ongoing atrial fibrillation. This was achieved by training one multiclass classification machine learning model using XGBoost, and three binary classification machine learning models using ROSETTA, on electrocardiogram recordings of people with and without atrial fibrillation. XGBoost is a tree boosting system which uses tree-like structures to classify data, while ROSETTA is a rule-based classification model which creates rules in an IF and THEN format to make decisions. The recordings were labelled according to three different classes: no atrial fibrillation, atrial fibrillation or preceding atrial fibrillation. The XGBoost model had a prediction accuracy of 99.3%, outperforming the three ROSETTA models and other atrial fibrillation classification and prediction models found. The ROSETTA models had high accuracies on the learning set, however, the predictions were subpar, indicating faulty settings for this type of data. The results in this project indicate that the models created can be used to accurately classify and predict onset of and ongoing atrial fibrillation, serving as a tool for early detection and verification of diagnosis.