Sweden´s Process to Enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) : Decision-making and Bounded Rationality in Times of Crisis

Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 set Europe in sorrow, distress, and emergency. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is something Sweden has refrained from joining due to the country’s neutral stance. However, despite Sweden's long-standing neutrality of over 200 years, it was abandoned within only weeks. The short timeframe of decision-making raised questions about the level of rationality in the decision of the Swedish NATO application. Scholars and researchers have through different methods and theories attempted to explain this unpredictable shift, but still, the process appears to lack a clearly defined rationale. This case study seeks to understand the decision-making process of the government in times of crisis, examining how the rationality of such decisions may have been compromised by analyzing secondary data. The aim is to address the research gap, concerning the rapid and framed process for Sweden to join NATO. Analyzing the decision through the lens of Bounded Rationality Theory, applying variables such as (1) time pressure, (2) cognition, and (3) access to information (Simon, 1947), the possibility arises to shred light on the factors contributing to Bounded Rationality in the Swedish NATO process. These aspects were all present in the Swedish NATO process. In combination with characteristics of a government in crisis (Boin, Hart, Stern & Sundelius, 2005), one can to a great extent understand the significant shift in stance towards NATO membership, given that governments tend to act differently when being subject to a crisis. It can be concluded that rationality was significantly bounded by limited access to information, to some extent by the ability to process information, and comprehensively by the constraints of time pressure. The Swedish NATO process, consisting of a government amid a crisis, was subject to and exemplifies Bounded Rationality in decision-making.