Success Determinants of Nordic Tender Offers

Abstract: The study of 180 tender offers occurred between 2009 and 2023 tests how a set of specific factors affects the probability of the successful completion of the tender offer and compares the results with the industry views on the topic. The study shows that the probability of success of the tender offer is increased with bid premium size and irrevocable commitments, while factors like due diligence condition and entering the process as an interloper negatively affect the probability of success of the bid. Conflicting evidence was found in support of toehold, sponsor involvement, block shareholders, financing condition, cash offer, and raised offer, while insider ownership is found to be unimportant. The implications of the results are discussed, with the main differences from the academic consensus outlined.