Detecting the trends in meteorological variables and investigating their effects on runoff over the last 50 years.

Abstract: There is now a general consensus among scientists on occurrences of more and intense climatic disasters, floods and droughts, everywhere in the future. To act sooner and smarter against these negative impacts, we must shift our focus in better understanding of the future climate change and possible implications of that to better manage our water resources. Certainly, there is a link between the future effects of climate change on water resources and trends of climatic variables. In this study, by using Mann-Kendall trend analysis method, it is concluded that from 1961 to 2010 only temperature has an upward trend, in all the seasons and yearly, in all the 16 studied stations from north, middle and south of Sweden. Furthermore, runoff simulated by HBV model shows increasing trend in summer and winter which is in partially agreement with the recorded one that discerns a growth in the mentioned seasons, as well as yearly. What is more, potential evapotranspiration estimated by FAO Penman-Monteith equation and actual one simulated by CoupModel reveal a rise in spring for the former and both spring and winter for the latter. Other meteorological variables do not show any significant trend, while intensive precipitation increased in winter and summer in the majority of the stations. Comparing the runoffs simulated by CoupModel and HBV model shows that HBV works better for three selected stations which can enforce the claim that HBV works better for smaller fields.