Measuring the Rate of Change in the MDG Period in Absolute and Relative Terms: Acceleration or Deceleration of Progress?

Abstract: The purpose of the MDGs has been debated depending on whether they should be seen as hard national planning targets or rather as means of inspiring development. This paper assesses whether there was any change in the rate of progress in the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) period. This is done by calculating the absolute and relative rate of change for all official indicators of the MDGs with sufficient data. The findings are then assessed by considering how many countries showed increased improvements and by testing for significantly different means by conducting two-sample t-tests with Holm-Bonferroni corrections. Countries are also categorized and tested depending on different characteristics. I find that few indicators showed a significant change in the rate of progress in the MDG period compared to earlier. Also, some indicators decelerated. When considering the different country categories I find that low-income, least developed, and the most corrupt countries were the groups that had most indicators accelerated the MDG period.