The Determinants of Outmigration: The Swedish Case

Abstract: This study analyses the composition of outmigration flows regarding migrants’ characteristics such as family situation, educational attainment and labour market situation. To expand our research, out-migrants are separated into return and onward migrants. Results indicate that the labour market situation of immigrants (unemployment and uptake of social benefits) in the destination country is an important determinant in the decision to out-migrate. However, the effect varies among countries due to the political situation in the source country, the migration costs and the extensive welfare benefits in Sweden. Labour immigrants are more likely to return to their country of origin whereas refugee immigrants are more likely to move to another country. Other findings demonstrate that emigrants are negatively selected regarding educational attainment. High-educated individuals have a higher probability of returning home than moving to a third country. The likelihood of emigration also depends on other characteristics such as the family situation of immigrants and the duration of residence in the destination country. All in all, labour market outcomes are the most important factors in the decision of out-migration.