Contesting the Status Quo- A comparative study of democratic electoral outcomes in electoral authoritarian regimes

Abstract: There has recently been an increased interest among academic scholars on the importance of elections as a promoter for democratic change in semi-democratic contexts. This thesis positions itself somewhat on the side of this debate asking; when do elections in electoral authoritarian regimes result in democratic consequences? Recognising that elections can be as well a tool for democratic empowerment as authoritarian legitimisation, the study tries to avoid an obviously democratic bias and seeks the causes for as well democratic improvements as erosion in connection with elections. Using a quantitative method with a global population of 283 elections in the period 1973-2004, the sample of the study is significantly larger than previous investigations on this subject. The main findings of the analysis is that while most of the theories laid out in the theoretical literature do not stand the test of a large scale quantitative test, a high number of demonstrations preceding the election and a larger historical experience of previous elections, is important for the democratic electoral outcome.