The relation between age at first birth and complete fertility

Abstract: Transition to later childbearing regimes is a distinct feature of nations in the developed world. Simultaneously, the overall continuation of the declines in fertility experienced by several European nations motivated the study of the relation between postponement and complete fertility. Several widespread theories established negative associations incorporating the idea of opportunity costs associated to family formation. The US has a particular aggregate behavior that challenges these ideas and provides an alternative grounding test for such theories and their general explanatory power. Using longitudinal data, the present study estimates the causal effect of age at first birth on complete fertility and finds weak evidence supporting a postponement-quantum effect.