Sweden’s Commodity Export Potential - A Gravity Approach : South-Korea

Abstract: This bachelor thesis aims to estimate Sweden’s export potential towards South-Korea since initial data indicates that Sweden has from 1997 up until 2005 been exporting less to South-Korea when compared to, in general, OECD. Furthermore, South-Korea seems to be a low prioritized market for Swedish firms in the East-Asian region. As many before us, we have used a basic gravity model, including GDP and distance in kilometer has been used as explanatory variables for the observed trade value. The dummy variable land-locked, to estimate trade potential for 15 commodity groups. Sweden was set to be the exporting country, South-Korea the importing country together with all the other OECD members, which were used as points of reference. The outcome of the gravity regression shows that distance and the dummy variable landlocked (if a country does not have access to open water) have a very strong relationship to the observed export data. However, GDP was proven to have a very weak relationship to the observed export data thus making the estimation process of trade potential for all, except one, commodity group biased. The gravity model has been widely criticized for inflating export potential due to misspecification a problem that we experienced when running our regression. Thus, from this study no strong conclusions can be drawn concerning the trade potential from Sweden to South-Korea.